Sentinel Costs - Planning - Technology

Transitioning into the research, development and production stages of the Sentinel missile finds the Air Force and Northrop Grumman, the principal contractor for the Sentinel missile program, at a significant advantage given the advances in technology over the years.

One key advantage to those involved in the research and development stages in the Sentinel program is utilizing model based engineering and digital engineering to design the Sentinel missile and weapon system overall. Using computers to explore any nuances or potential problems or glitches, be it structural, software driven, electrical or other areas allows these developers to catch unforeseen problems before they actually get to the production stage.

A significant amount of time, effort and money will be saved by utilizing these features.

This is a stark contrast compared to the early days of the Minuteman missile program, where research and development was still ongoing while they were constructing the Launch Facilities for the Minuteman. It was not uncommon for the contractors out in the field having to dismantle what had already been built, to modify the Launch Facility for the changes being made as development of the Minuteman and its weapon system was being built, on the fly, per se.

Another key feature the Air Force is incorporating with the Sentinel missile and its weapons system overall is establshing that the Air Force owns the technical features developed for the Sentinel missile and its system. In other words, instead of contracting with outside companies to maintain and upgrade the software, hardware and other aspects of the system, the Air Force is stepping forward in assuring that they own the software and hardware and don't have to ask others to maintain, troubleshoot or upgrade the equipment. This will allow the Air Force to be able to sustain and update the weapon system through its lifecycle, increasing its long-term capability and reducing program costs and risks.

Modular design will utilize these features, and allow for the Air Force to adapt and change as technologies evolve, as well as addressing new threats that might become prevalent. This will allow the Air Force to change certain features in the Sentinel missile and its weapons system, and not have to completely revamp the system. This will add to safety, security, and again provide more manageable costs.

The Air Force plans on collaborating with their AFWERX program. AFWERX is the innovation arm of the Department of the Air Force and is driven by the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). AFWERX provides cutting edge American ingenuity in addressing the most pressing challenges of the Department of the Air Force.

AFWERX works closely on an international scale across academia, industry and government to develop technology, and is able to draw upon a vast amount of talent and intellect, in addressing whatever problems or tasks they are presented with.

It goes to say, it is better to work smarter, not necessarily harder.

Just before the end of business day January 18, 2024, the Air Force notified Congress of a Nunn-McCurdy breach on the Sentinel program. The Nunn-McCurdy Act requires the Pentagon to inform lawmakers if a program incurs a cost or has a schedule overrun of more than 15 percent. Any breach over 15 percent is considered "significant," while any breach of over 30 percent is considered "critical."

In the semantics of any weapon system development, there is a feature interwoven into each of those system development programs called a Program Acquisition Unit Cost. A PAUC. The Sentinel missile's Program Acquisition Unit Cost, which accounts for development, construction and acquisition cost, has increased by 37 percent. Outlined by the guidelines of a Nunn-McCurdy breach, this is considered "critical."

One source states that when the Sentinel program was outlined in 2020, the PAUC was established at $118 million. The 37 percent increase now establishes this estimate at $162 million for the PAUC, per this source's report. Under the Nunn-McCurdy Act, any programs established as at a "critical" status are assumed to be headed for termination, unless the Secretary of Defense certifies that there are no other alternatives, as well as a number of factors that are addressed in this review.

At this juncture it will fall upon Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to make that certification, based on a number of variables, such as the necessity of replacing the 50 year old Minuteman III missiles, the end of life these missiles pose, and that there are no other lower cost alternatives to the Sentinel missile and other factors.

Two sources address these significant increases in cost. One source states that the Air Force did not take into account the necessity to upgrade the copper cables used with the HICS, Hardened Intersite Cable System, with more advanced and higher performing fiber optic network. It is being posited that it was not taken into account the immense effort and costs in replacing the copper cables with fiber optics.

The difficulty with this issue is that the Air Force has been aware of the degradation of their copper cabling for years. Why would this not have been something previously established, and plans made based on this information?

At present the Air Force has stated the Pentagon is still studying what exactly caused the severe cost overruns, which triggered this review process related to the critical Nunn-McCurdy breach.

A second source highlights how the Government Accountability Office warned in June that ICBM-builder Northrop Grumman has been struggling with staffing shortfalls, supply chain problems, and clearance processing delays.

This second source states, 'The overruns aren't caused by the "missile itself," but by the program being a massive "civil works" project, including building the silos and missile field modernization.'

The Sentinel missile program is now being realized as the massive and complex new weapon system it truly is. The Sentinel missile and its weapon system is one of many top modernization efforts being managed by the Defense Department, and has a number of people rightuflly concerned.

Given the Minuteman III missile was initially planned to be used for 10 years and now the Air Force has been using this missile for 54 years, it is clearly time for Minuteman missile be replaced.

With the uncertainty of what is happening in Russia combined with the significant and concerning advancements being made in China with its ICBM weapon system, the importance of moving forward with the Sentinel missile and its program cannot be overstated. Some Defense Department experts are making coherent and sound arguments as to why the United States needs to move forward with a much needed modernized nuclear force. These experts are commenting that given the significant advances with other countries and their significant movements toward modernizing their weapon sysems, it apears that the Sentinel program is unlikely to be terminated.